Trump vs Trump

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Don Keyser react to the post Se Trump non vince, by Francesco Sisci

This is a point of view embraced particularly by Europeans and by Trump supporters in the US:

«Uno degli elementi fu attrarre votanti come “uomo contro il sistema”, rispetto al “sistema” personificato da Hillary Clinton, moglie di un ex presidente e terminale di interessi importanti del Paese. Il voto per Trump voleva anche essere uno schiaffo contro l’establishment.
Oggi però Trump stesso è il sistema, ed è tutto quello che non funziona nel sistema perché semplicemente è il presidente. Quindi quel voto potrebbe venire meno.
Un’altra, più importante fonte di sostegno è il quello che Trump trova nell’America profonda, tradizionalista, intimorita dalla perdita di identità per l’arrivo di immigrati, del proprio contributo a un ordine mondiale che pare impoverire gli USA anziché arricchirlo. Ma questo blocco di consenso potrebbe essere stato già intaccato dalla crisi in corso e potrebbe cedere ancora di più nei mesi prossimi».

But it isn’t really true.  Every respectable poll and academic study has shown clearly that the single issue linking Trump voters and explaining their vote was not economic uncertainty born of globalization/immigration but simply, old-fashioned American racism and misogyny.  They were reacting against the Obama years – the so-called “white backlash” – and a conviction that “Hillary” would continue policies that favoured blacks, Hispanics, women and gays.  That is what they meant by “the system”.  And “economic concerns” had little or nothing to do with globalization, much more to do with the resentment on the part of relatively less educated white males that “their” jobs were going to blacks, Hispanics and women.

I don’t know where you get this statistic:

«Some 40% of the military is black, so they objectively sympathize with the cause against racism, and so do many of their white comrades».

Trump supporters

Source: Statista 2020

And your concluding sentence doesn’t seem correct to me:

«Al di là delle divisioni su Trump, c’è un consenso generale che tutta la serie di eventi americani ha iniziato con l’arrivo del virus dalla Cina».

Whose “general consensus” is this?  That may be the stated view of Trump supporters but it certainly isn’t the view of Americans in general.  Our national problems began with Trump’s election (by less than half of the electorate).  Those problems will not be eradicated entirely by casting him out into the wilderness, but that’s a start.  A credible national poll yesterday had Biden 14 percentage points in the lead over Trump.  That sounds about right to me.  Trump has never commanded support of more than 40-41% of Americans through his presidency.  Trump isn’t running against Biden, he is running against himself.

I would also caution against an assumption that all the “anti-China” talk is “real” and “enduring” rather than the sort of thing one gets in a heated presidential campaign.  There are genuine issues and concerns involving China, and US-China ties, but most Americans (who aren’t Trump supporters) are intelligent enough to know that the year isn’t 1950 or 1960, so it isn’t a question of  “communism” (as Trump people pretend) but a question of serious competition between two major nations that could lead to a military contest if matters are not handled skilfully.

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