US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that China could be preparing to provide weapons to Russia to try to prevent Moscow’s now likely military defeat in Ukraine.

It would escalate the Balloon fracas, where Beijing demands apologies for the US destruction of the surveillance device floating over American skies ten days ago. America demands explanations for the Chinese surveillance program on the US and US allies.

It would be a momentous political and strategic move by China, with unfathomable consequences, especially after the Balloon incident that fraught already fragile ties with the US.

China may be tempted by the idea of fighting America by proxy in Ukraine rather than on its borders. But if there is a fight, it should be essential to have a fair chance to win it and not a good chance of losing it.

But can Chinese military assistance to Russia offset the present Moscow results in Ukraine?

Russia is failing not because of weapons but because of the army’s performance: poor logistics, command structure, and morale.

Chinese Weapons, drones, and missiles can terrorize the rest of Ukraine, but will they break Ukraine? Unlikely. Ukrainians suffered a lot and are unlikely to give in.

Russians, conversely, do not understand the war and will understand even less if they are kept afloat by the Chinese, encroaching on the Russian far east.

What it can do is push Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and the Baltics to the frontline

China will weaken its ties with Europe and hasten trade decoupling. Moreover, if it wins, Russia will win; if Russia loses, China will have failed. It is a lose-lose proposition.